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Housing affordability is on everyone’s mind these days. Whether you’re a renter trying to keep up with rising costs or a would-be homebuyer navigating sky-high mortgage rates, the market feels anything but friendly. With President-elect Donald Trump returning to the White House, questions about housing policy, affordability, and innovation loom large. Will deregulation and new federal land policies help? Or will tariffs, labor shortages, and inflation push us further out of reach?
Let’s break it down and get real about what’s driving the housing crunch—and what it’ll take to fix it.
Trump’s Impact On The Market
Deregulation and Its Double-Edged Sword
One of the biggest promises of the Trump administration is deregulation. For homebuilders, that sounds like music to their ears. Regulations currently make up about 24% of the cost of building a new home, so cutting red tape could, in theory, make housing more affordable. Trump has also floated the idea of opening up federally owned lands for development, which could help boost housing supply—though that impact will likely be felt more in the West than in densely populated cities like Baltimore or New York.
But here’s the catch: Deregulation alone won’t magically lower prices. What developers save on the front end won’t necessarily translate into cheaper homes for buyers. Plus, while loosening land-use restrictions and permitting requirements could accelerate housing development, it’s important to balance progress with preserving environmental and community standards.
The Real Culprit
Not Enough Homes
No matter who’s in the White House, the core problem remains the same: we’re not building enough housing. For decades, restrictive local regulations—like minimum lot sizes, density limits, and parking mandates—have made it nearly impossible to meet demand in high-growth areas. In Maryland alone, more than 100,000 affordable housing units are needed to keep pace with demand.
This supply-and-demand mismatch isn’t just a local issue. Nationwide, housing prices have been outpacing income growth for years. From 2000 to 2020, prices rose faster than wages in 90% of U.S. counties. That’s why today’s affordability crisis isn’t just about high mortgage rates or expensive materials—it’s a systemic issue that’s been brewing for decades.
Mortgage Rates, Tariffs, and Labor
A Perfect Storm
Under Trump’s proposed policies, rising tariffs on imported goods and tougher immigration enforcement could further squeeze the housing market. Materials like lumber and steel would become more expensive, driving up construction costs, while mass deportations could shrink the labor pool—especially in residential construction, where immigrants make up 31% of the workforce.
And then there are mortgage rates. Already climbing from pandemic-era lows, rates are now sitting at multi-year highs. Higher tariffs and inflationary policies could push them even higher, making homeownership even less accessible for first-time buyers.
The Role of Technology
Friend or Foe?
Some critics point fingers at technology, like RealPage’s dynamic pricing software, blaming it for rising rents. But let’s be real: rent prices rise when demand outpaces supply, not because landlords are conspiring with algorithms. In fact, technology could be part of the solution. AI tools, for instance, can help streamline permitting processes and cut down on the time and costs involved in building new housing.
States like Virginia and Pennsylvania are already using AI to improve efficiency, and if more states followed suit, we could see a faster path to more affordable homes. The takeaway? Technology isn’t the villain here—it’s a tool we need to embrace.
The Path Forward
Smarter Solutions, Fewer Distractions
If we want real solutions, we need to focus on what works:
Cut the Red Tape: Reduce unnecessary regulations that slow down construction while still preserving the character of local communities.
Build More Homes: Encourage local governments to reform zoning laws and prioritize housing development where it’s needed most.
Leverage Technology: Use tools like AI to streamline permitting and cut costs, making it easier and faster to bring new homes to market.
Rethink Supply Chains: Address the impact of tariffs and labor shortages by encouraging domestic production and supporting the construction workforce.
Balance Policy: Federal and state governments must work together to create policies that address both local and national housing needs.
2025: The Year We Build Smarter
The housing market is complex, but the solutions don’t have to be. By cutting through the noise—whether it’s blame-shifting to technology or getting stuck in political gridlock—we can focus on the real issues: building more housing, making it more affordable, and doing it in a way that benefits everyone.
This is a pivotal moment for the housing industry. Whether you’re a buyer, renter, or builder, it’s time to push for smarter policies and embrace innovation. Because if there’s one thing we all deserve, it’s a place to call home.